ISLAMABAD: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission, led by Iva Petrova, is scheduled to visit Pakistan on February 26 to review progress under the $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the $1.1 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF), officials said.
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The nearly two-week visit, concluding on March 11, will hold added importance as discussions will also cover budget proposals and outline the framework for the upcoming fiscal year 2026-27 budget, particularly matters related to provincial finances.
Officials said Pakistan’s programme performance through the end of December 2025 — the review period — has largely remained on track, despite a revenue shortfall. Authorities expect the gap to narrow following a recent super tax ruling by the Federal Constitutional Court that favoured the government.
The power sector is expected to remain under close scrutiny amid recent policy fluctuations, including decisions affecting industrial tariffs and residential fixed charges. However, circular debt levels are reportedly within agreed targets.
On the positive side, Pakistan has met most quantitative performance criteria set for December 2025. Nevertheless, progress on indicative targets and structural benchmarks has lagged, which could influence future programme implementation.
Following successful completion of the review, Pakistan is expected to receive about $1 billion (760 million Special Drawing Rights) under the EFF and an additional $200 million under the RSF by the end of April.
Meanwhile, brokerage firm Topline Research projected that Pakistan is likely to meet nearly all quantitative performance criteria, though data for one indicator — the floor on targeted cash transfers — remains pending. The firm noted that a previously missed target was largely technical, linked to lower administrative spending rather than reduced beneficiary support.
Topline Research also estimated net international reserves at around $6.7 billion against the $7 billion benchmark for September 2025 and below $6 billion compared to the $6.5 billion target for December 2025.
It added that the State Bank of Pakistan’s net domestic assets are expected to remain within limits, while foreign currency swaps stood close to agreed ceilings. Primary surplus figures were estimated to exceed targets for both September and December review periods.
However, the Federal Board of Revenue’s indicative tax collection target was missed by Rs336 billion. Analysts believe part of the shortfall may be recovered following the super tax verdict, although collections may still remain below the annual goal.
