Pakistan Gas Crisis: Government prepares for winter LNG shortages as Qatar supplies face uncertainty

Pakistan has begun preparing for a possible winter gas crisis as disruptions to maritime routes amid the Middle East conflict threaten liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and complicate efforts to meet seasonal demand.

The Ministry of Petroleum is developing a winter gas plan that could require expensive spot-market purchases if deliveries under long-term contracts with Qatar remain unavailable.

Sources within the ministry said Pakistan would need 21 LNG cargoes to meet its winter requirements. If Qatari supplies do not resume, the government may turn to the international spot market to bridge the shortfall.

However, spot-market purchases could significantly increase import costs. According to ministry sources, an LNG cargo currently costs around $30 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on the spot market. By comparison, supplies under Pakistan’s long-term contract with Qatar cost between $13 and $16 per MMBtu.

The price difference could place additional pressure on the country’s finances as it seeks to secure sufficient supplies for the colder months.

The Ministry of Petroleum plans to seek federal government approval for the proposed winter gas strategy. Implementation will begin once the federal cabinet grants the necessary approval, according to the sources.

Pakistan meets approximately 40% of its winter gas deficit through imported LNG, making international deliveries an important part of its seasonal supply arrangements.

If shipments from Qatar remain disrupted, Pakistan may need to buy more expensive cargoes from other suppliers. The higher procurement costs could increase the financial burden on the government and potentially affect consumers if some of the additional expenses are passed on through gas prices.

The disruption of maritime routes amid the Middle East conflict has added uncertainty to energy shipments and raised concerns about the availability and affordability of alternative supplies.

Domestic gas availability also remains a challenge. Even with imported LNG, household supplies are generally restricted to breakfast and dinner hours in many areas.

The expected winter shortfall could put further pressure on household supplies as temperatures fall and demand rises. Global prices for LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) can also increase during periods of strong seasonal demand.

Pakistan’s ability to secure the required cargoes at affordable prices will be crucial to managing winter demand and limiting the risk of higher costs for consumers.