The ongoing conflict in Iran is expected to create a range of economic, political and security challenges for Pakistan, raising concerns about the country’s ability to manage the consequences of instability in its neighbourhood.
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Analysts warn that Pakistan, already grappling with multiple crises, may face intensified pressures as the war continues. The shared border with Iran means any instability there could quickly spill over into Pakistan, affecting the economy, internal security and social cohesion.
One of the most immediate impacts has been the rise in fuel prices. The recent increase in petrol prices reflects the broader global energy shock linked to the conflict. While the government argues the move is necessary to meet fiscal targets under the International Monetary Fund programme and to discourage hoarding, the decision is expected to add further pressure on households already struggling with declining purchasing power.
Rising inflation is likely to deepen public frustration and increase political pressure on the government of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Analysts say the economic downturn could weaken the administration’s already limited public support, potentially fuelling protests and political instability.
Economists also warn that further increases in global oil prices could worsen Pakistan’s current account balance and affect revenue collection. Prolonged regional tensions could also impact remittances from Gulf countries if their economies slow down due to the conflict.
Trade could also suffer. Disruptions to regional routes and economic uncertainty may slow Pakistan’s export activity, adding to the country’s financial strain.
Beyond economic concerns, the conflict may also heighten sectarian tensions within Pakistan. Protests erupted in several cities following reports of the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with some demonstrations turning violent. Authorities imposed curfews in sensitive areas such as Gilgit-Baltistan amid fears of further unrest.
Observers say the war in Iran is emotionally charged for both Shia and Sunni communities in Pakistan, and prolonged hostilities could inflame sectarian sentiments. The situation is further complicated by rumours and political criticism surrounding Pakistan’s foreign policy stance during the conflict.
Security experts also warn that instability in Iran could worsen the militancy challenge along Pakistan’s western borders. Ongoing attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan already demonstrate the persistent threat posed by militant groups.
A weakened Iranian state could also create opportunities for extremist groups to operate near the Pakistan-Iran border, potentially increasing cross-border militancy and refugee flows.
Analysts note that regional instability may also create geopolitical complications if political change in Iran leads to the emergence of a government less friendly toward Pakistan.
With economic strain, security threats and internal political pressures likely to intensify, experts say both the government and the public should prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty as the regional conflict unfolds.
