Oil Imports Pakistan’s Petroleum Bill Surpasses IMF Forecast in FY2025-26

Oil Imports pushed Pakistan’s annual petroleum import bill above the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) forecast in fiscal year 2025-26 as rising global crude prices increased the country’s energy costs.

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Official documents showed Pakistan’s petroleum import bill reached $16.86 billion during FY2025-26, exceeding the IMF’s projected $15.28 billion by $1.58 billion.

The import bill increased 5.76% compared with the previous fiscal year. Higher international crude prices and Pakistan’s continued reliance on imported fuel drove the increase.

Global oil markets surged after escalating tensions involving Iran, Israel and the United States raised fears over energy supplies. Concerns about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil exports, also lifted benchmark crude prices during the final months of the fiscal year.

For FY2026-27, the IMF projects Pakistan’s petroleum import bill at $16.31 billion. However, analysts warn that the estimate could rise if geopolitical tensions continue and oil prices remain elevated.

The higher import costs have already pushed domestic fuel prices to record levels, with petrol and high-speed diesel becoming more expensive in recent weeks. Economists expect rising energy prices to fuel inflation, increase foreign exchange demand and place additional pressure on the country’s import bill.

Pakistan imports most of its crude oil and refined petroleum products, making the economy highly sensitive to fluctuations in global energy markets. Petroleum remains one of the country’s largest import categories and significantly influences the trade deficit and current account balance.

Despite the higher oil import bill, Pakistan maintained relative stability in its external sector during FY2025-26, supported by record workers’ remittances and tighter import controls. Economists caution, however, that prolonged high oil prices could challenge the country’s efforts to preserve macroeconomic stability and achieve fiscal and external sector targets agreed with the IMF.

Official figures showed oil imports totaled $16.86 billion in FY2025-26, while the IMF expects imports to remain above $16 billion in FY2026-27. The final outcome will depend largely on international oil prices and domestic energy demand.