The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has released its seasonal forecast for the 2026 monsoon. The department expects below-normal rainfall in most parts of the country.
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However, some northern regions may receive above-normal precipitation during the season.
Northern Areas May Receive More Rain
According to the forecast, Kashmir, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan are likely to record heavier-than-usual rainfall.
As a result, authorities may need to closely monitor weather conditions in these areas throughout the monsoon period.
Temperatures Expected to Stay Above Normal
The PMD said temperatures will likely remain above normal from July to September.
Northern Punjab and western Gilgit-Baltistan may experience more intense heat than other regions. Therefore, residents could face increased heat-related challenges during the summer months.
Urban Flooding and Water Shortage Risks
The department warned that heavy monsoon spells combined with high temperatures could raise the risk of urban flooding.
Major cities in Sindh, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa may face drainage and flooding challenges during periods of intense rainfall.
Meanwhile, reduced rainfall in parts of Punjab, Sindh and Balochistan could worsen existing water shortages. In addition, higher temperatures may increase heat stress across the country.
Glacial Flood Threat Remains
Officials also highlighted the risk of rapid glacial melting in northern areas.
This could trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which can cause sudden flooding and damage to nearby communities and infrastructure.
Experts Call for Preparedness
Experts have urged authorities to improve preparedness and strengthen early warning systems.
They said proactive planning can help reduce the impact of extreme weather events and climate-related risks during the monsoon season.
